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My Nightmare Come True
#11
(03-02-2018, 05:34 AM)UglyNRude Wrote: Here is a good article for you to read about dreams and chance.

Let's start by defining our variables. Dreaming of a loved one dying is one of the most common recurring dreams that everyone has. Let's estimate that you have this dream about once every six months. That means that on any given night, you have a 1/180 probability of having this dream.
Now, how many loved ones do you have? Let's start with just immediate family. The average American is born with 1.7 parents, has 2.1 siblings, has .55 spouses, and 2.0 children. That adds up to 6.4 immediate family members. So any given death dream has a 1/6.4 probability of applying to any specific family member.
Therefore, on the day that any given family member dies, there is a 1/180 x 1/6.4 chance you dreamed about it on that same night. That comes to a 1/1,200 chance. Half of your immediate family (that's 3.2 people) will die before you do, so that's a 1/360 chance that this experience will happen to you. Invert it, and we find that it happens, on average, to one in every 360 people. Don't like my estimated numbers? Change the variables as much as you like. Even if I'm off by a factor of 1,000, and it only happens to one in every 360,000 people, there are 7 billion of us. That means 20,000 people in the world have this happen, according to hard mathematics. And I'm probably not off by a factor of 1,000. And if we extend beyond immediate family to include grandparents, first cousins, and grandchildren, the chances increase exponentially.
Here's the important part. It is a mathematical fact that this occasionally happens by random chance, just like it's a mathematical fact that lotteries are won. The alternate explanation, that of psychic powers, is a hypothesis that has been tested many times. Evidence of its existence has failed every single time that proper controls have been applied, without exception. So we have mathematical proof supporting one candidate explanation, and experimental failure supporting the other. Conclude as you will.
https://skeptoid.com/episodes/4577



hmmmmm, interesting never thought about it like that good article
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#12
(03-02-2018, 05:34 AM)UglyNRude Wrote: Here is a good article for you to read about dreams and chance.

Let's start by defining our variables. Dreaming of a loved one dying is one of the most common recurring dreams that everyone has. Let's estimate that you have this dream about once every six months. That means that on any given night, you have a 1/180 probability of having this dream.
Now, how many loved ones do you have? Let's start with just immediate family. The average American is born with 1.7 parents, has 2.1 siblings, has .55 spouses, and 2.0 children. That adds up to 6.4 immediate family members. So any given death dream has a 1/6.4 probability of applying to any specific family member.
Therefore, on the day that any given family member dies, there is a 1/180 x 1/6.4 chance you dreamed about it on that same night. That comes to a 1/1,200 chance. Half of your immediate family (that's 3.2 people) will die before you do, so that's a 1/360 chance that this experience will happen to you. Invert it, and we find that it happens, on average, to one in every 360 people. Don't like my estimated numbers? Change the variables as much as you like. Even if I'm off by a factor of 1,000, and it only happens to one in every 360,000 people, there are 7 billion of us. That means 20,000 people in the world have this happen, according to hard mathematics. And I'm probably not off by a factor of 1,000. And if we extend beyond immediate family to include grandparents, first cousins, and grandchildren, the chances increase exponentially.
Here's the important part. It is a mathematical fact that this occasionally happens by random chance, just like it's a mathematical fact that lotteries are won. The alternate explanation, that of psychic powers, is a hypothesis that has been tested many times. Evidence of its existence has failed every single time that proper controls have been applied, without exception. So we have mathematical proof supporting one candidate explanation, and experimental failure supporting the other. Conclude as you will.
https://skeptoid.com/episodes/4577

My brain hurts now
[Image: laughing-cow_300x300.png] 
"Gratitude is a sickness suffered by dogs." - Joseph Stalin
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#13
In the words of Beavis and Butthead, "I was not informed that math would be required."
-DFB

Subject: I have a black cat.
Believer: Black cats are bad luck.
Non-believer: It's just a cat.
Crackpot: Black cats are part of the New World Order government conspiracy.
Skeptic: I can test if black cats are more or less lucky than another cat.
Cynic: You only have a black cat to gain power and prestige.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9iIf4tFoyE

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